Airbnb (ABNB) fell for four weeks in a row in September, its worst month of trading since March 2025. Then KeyBanc Capital Markets issued a Buy call that swayed some investors.
ABNB shares rose after the call and closed at $162.43 on Friday, Oct. 2, ending its losing streak. The stock also increased by about 4.2% over five trading sessions.
KeyBanc believes the new business Airbnb is integrating into its core model could pay off in the future.
KeyBanc lifts Airbnb to Overweight with a $191 target
On Oct. 2, 2026, KeyBanc analyst Sergio Segura upgraded Airbnb from Sector Weight to Overweight, meaning he believes the stock is a buy. He set a $191 price target along with the new rating, an increase of about 19% from its Oct. 1 close of $160.47, according to CNBC.
Also read: Airbnb CEO says travelers are about to see big changes
Segura has covered internet and travel stocks at KeyBanc for several years, and he often watches for companies at a turning point. Citizens also recently raised its Airbnb target to $200, so KeyBanc isn’t the only one with a positive view of the stock.
In fact, of the 34 analysts covering the stock, 22 rate it a Buy, while 11 have Hold ratings, and there is only one Sell rating.
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Why hotels are becoming Airbnb’s new growth engine
Airbnb makes most of its money by linking up travelers with people who rent out homes, apartments, and spare rooms. Then it charges a service fee when travelers book through those listings.
However, that model has faced challenges in cities like New York and Chicago, which have strict short-term rental rules. But working with hotels has begun to ease those difficulties.
KeyBanc noted that the number of people booking hotel nights through Airbnb is increasing three times faster than the number of people booking homes, Investing.com reported.
“Hotels are currently a single-digit percentage of Nights but growing three times faster than Airbnb’s homes segment,” said Segura.
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Here’s a detail that I find interesting. Some first-time guests who book a hotel on Airbnb later book a home.
“Roughly 35% of first-time hotel guests return to Airbnb to book a home,” Airbnb CEO Brian Chesky said. “What this shows is how hotels are introducing new guests to Airbnb, and many of those new guests don’t just come back and book hotels; they come back and they book homes. Hotels are making homes stronger.”
That’s the kind of positive change shareholders want to see.
The AI rollout and the cheap valuation case
On Sept. 30, Airbnb updated its U.S. platform so it could include a voice search option, AI filters, and AI-generated summaries for the places it recommends.
KeyBanc thinks these tools will help travelers plan their trips, which could end up bringing more customers to the business.
Related: Jim Cramer says battered travel stock everyone uses is a ‘steal’
Airbnb trades at about 14.1 times its estimated 2028 EV/EBITDA, which is below its three-year average of 16.7 times. That’s after the stock’s 18% year-to-date gain.
Because of that, Segura said the stock is too cheap to ignore, since it trades at a cheaper valuation than traditional hotel chains despite stronger growth.
What ABNB investors should watch before buying in
Airbnb plans to report its third-quarter earnings on Nov. 5. Wall Street expects to see a double-digit increase in the total number of nights booked. If the company doesn’t meet expectations, the stock could fall again. Also, the regulatory pressure affecting short-term rentals hasn’t completely disappeared.
New investors thinking of buying the stock could wait for the November report before putting money in, while current holders may prefer to add to their positions gradually rather than all at once.
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