SpaceX (SPCX) is to report second quarter earnings on August 4, offering investors their first look at how it might justify its nosebleed valuation.
Ahead of the report, shareholders are bracing for another Big Tech-style quarter, marred by heavy spending, uncertain cash flow, and a looming increase in tradable shares.
Those concerns have pushed SpaceX stock sharply below its June peak and even below its $135 IPO price.
The selling pressure stands, but according to TheFly, Cantor Fitzgerald’s top analyst, Colin Canfield, remains firmly bullish, and at the center of it is SpaceX’s upcoming earnings report.
Earnings now becomes a major test of whether Elon Musk’s space business can generate enough financial firepower to sustain his broader ambitions.
Cantor’s thesis is built around a flywheel
Canfield just doubled down on SpaceX stock ahead of the pivotal Q2 earnings report, maintaining a $246 price target.
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At SpaceX’s latest price of $108.37, Canfield’s target implies roughly 127% upside.
Canfield argues that SpaceX is unlike a typical aerospace business because it controls more of its economic chain than almost any competitor.
Falcon and Starship can deploy Starlink satellites at an internally controlled cost. Starlink can generate subscription sales by offering communications infrastructure. The AI operation can utilize that network, SpaceX’s computing capacity, and the X platform to distribute and monetize services.
So, in effect, each layer makes the others more valuable.
Their integration offers unusually robust economics, but it also creates an analytical issue for investors.
For years, Tesla (TSLA) investors have struggled to assign separate values to its business segments, even as the company has remained primarily an EV maker. SpaceX investors are likely to face the same valuation conundrum.
So a profitable Starlink business might subsidize years of losses in Starship or AI, inflating consolidated revenue growth to look much healthier than underlying cash generation.
That’s why SpaceX’s first public company results matter a ton, because they could show investors where the profits, losses, and capital requirements actually sit.
What Canfield says earnings need to resolve
Canfield identified three primary issues that SpaceX’s earnings report could answer.
- Is the AI computing business profitable?
- How does SpaceX intend to finance its enormous capital spending?
- Can SpaceX move beyond the technical and selling pressure surrounding its post-IPO lock-up period?
The first issue is perhaps the most pressing.
Consensus estimates, as reported by S&P Global, call for SpaceX to post roughly $6.9 billionin quarterly revenue, with some estimates projecting AI revenue to jump from $818 million to $2.18 billion. Nevertheless, AI-related capital spending is projected to be near $7.7 billion, while total quarterly capital expenditures may approach $12.94 billion.
So investors will need strong evidence that SpaceX can sell its computing capacity at attractive margins, rather than continuing to buy expensive chips to power infrastructure that generates robust headline growth.
Therefore, AI gross margins, segment-level operating losses, customer contract structures, and compute-capacity utilization are four key metrics investors should monitor.
Investors will also need greater transparency regarding the economics of major customer relationships, including those with Alphabet (GOOGL) and Anthropic.
Free cash flow matters more than reported revenue
The second major test is financing.
SpaceX can report impressive growth but will still erode shareholder wealth if every dollar of sales entails several dollars of infrastructure spending.
AI accounted for 61% of company CapEx in 2025 and approximately 76% in early 2026, according to its IPO disclosures.
SpaceX also spent about $21 billion on total capital expenditures in 2025, exceeding its $18.7 billion in revenue.
On top of that, company management needs to show how SpaceX can potentially finance its next phase of expansion.
Naturally, investor concerns center on the use of internal reserves, taking on additional debt, or issuing new equity. The reported $25 billion bond sale offers healthy liquidity, but it doesn’t eliminate the economic burden in any way. That opens up the debate to interest expenses, refinancing risks, and the speed at which new infrastructure can start generating cash.
Moreover, investors will need evidence on identifiable returns through contracted sales, added capacity, and subscriber growth.
Starlink remains central to that case.
The business reportedly generated$3.3 billion in Q1 sales, or nearly 70% of SpaceX’s sales, while subscribers exceeded 10.3 million. Investors will want to look beyond total users and focus on additions, average revenue per user, churn, and segment margins. However, if we see any slowdown in Starlink’s pricing power or subscriber growth, the effects could cascade onto Starship and AI infrastructure.
Richard Bord/WireImage
How volatile has SpaceX stock been since its IPO?
SpaceX’s public-market debut was historic, to say the least.
It raised a record $75 billion, pricing shares at $135 and valuing the business at nearly $1.77trillion, according to Reuters. Shares opened at $150 on June 12 and closed their first session at $160.95, a 19% gain, lifting their market value over $2 trillion.
According to CNBC, excitement peaked over the next few sessions, pushing the stock to an intraday high of $225.64 as investors rushed to gain exposure to Musk’s newest public venture.
Nevertheless, the rally quickly unravelled, with SpaceX closing July 31 at a record-low $108.37, around 20% behind its IPO price and 52% below its peak.
However, SpaceX still commands a lofty $1.43 trillion market capitalization, according to CompaniesMarketCap, ranking it ninth among the world’s 10 most valuable companies.
SpaceX stock remains technically fragile
Barchart’s data shows SpaceX remains in a clear downtrend.
Over the past five days, the stock has shed 6% of its value and tanked 33% over 20 days.
Consequently, its five-day moving average is $112.61, its 20-day average is $128.81, and if the stock trades below both levels, it means sellers still control the short- and medium-term trend.
The first key level to track is at $112 to $113.
Closing above that range would be an early sign that selling pressure is easing. However, the bigger hurdle is $128-$129, near the 20-day average. If SpaceX stock recovers that level with strong volume, that would indicate a trend reversal.
On the flip side, the momentum indicators suggest the sell-off may be stretched.
SpaceX’s nine-day relative strength index, or RSI, is 26.25. RSI measures buying and selling pressure, and if a reading falls below 30, it means a stock is in oversold territory. At the same time, its short-term stochastic readings are also near or below 20, pointing in the same direction as its RSI.
However, oversold does not automatically mean the bottom is in.
The nine-day directional index (ADX) is 31, indicating the recent trend has meaningful strength. The negative directional reading of 27.4 also remains comfortably above the positive reading of 12.4, confirming the bearish momentum.
Moreover, the risk remains high.
The 14-day average true range is $10.31, indicating that SpaceX’s typical daily trading movement is about 9.5%.
Earnings might trigger a reversal, but investors need to look for a move above $113 first, then $129. Failure to hold around $108 would leave the stock vulnerable to another drop, toward the psychological $100 level.
Earnings cannot eliminate the lock-up risk
Canfield also believes that SpaceX’s earnings report might relieve some pressure associated with the approaching lock-up expiration.
For context, over 900 million shares are set to become eligible for at least partial sale shortly after earnings, which creates an enormous increase in tradable supply.
However, earnings cannot make that supply disappear.
A strong report might generate enough new demand to absorb insider selling, but it’s unwise to conflate improved fundamentals with the removal of a technical risk.
Perhaps the best combo for SpaceX fans would be strong operating results along with limited insider selling. However, the more dangerous outcome is weak guidance followed by massive sales from early investors and employees.
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